So far the rebels are advancing Syria seems unstoppable. On Friday, convoys of pick-up trucks and motorcycles belonging to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies were reported to have reached the outskirts of the city of Homs, just 100 miles (160 km) from Damascus, the capital.
The extremely rapid progress made by the coalition of rebel groups has astonished not only observers and regional powers, but also, it seems, the regime of Bashar al-Assad. HTS stormed first from its northwestern stronghold of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and then into Hama, another major city 80 miles further south along the strategic M5 highway.
Assad’s military forces offered little resistance. Poorly trained police officers are forced to work with predictable results. Shortly before the rebels arrived outside Hama, Syria’s defense ministry called its defense lines “impregnable”. At the time, the Syrian army said it had withdrawn “to preserve civilian lives”.
Few are fooled by such claims, especially from a regime responsible for such massive civilian casualties during 13 years of civil conflict. Analysts have described Assad’s army as “ravaged” by poor morale, desertions and corruption. His retreat left ranks of armored personnel carriers, tanks, even sophisticated Russian-supplied rocket launchers and fighter jets in rebel hands.
“The question is whether they can continue the momentum and go to Damascus.” It seems like a huge wave of support for what’s going on and it shows the fragile nature of the regime,” said Sanam Vakildirector of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London.
HTS, a former branch of al-Qaeda, has made efforts to tone down its sectarian image and, presumably, ideology. HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said careful management of relations with different communities was one of the reasons for the successes of the past week, citing as an example the insurgents’ negotiated entry into Shiite Ismaili villages. “If they can take that approach with the Alawite communities, then it’s over,” Hellier said, referring to the heterodox Shiite minority of which Assad is a member and from which he draws much of his most loyal support.
There is also evidence of close coordination between rebel forces – the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army sent a convoy to support HTS when it needed reinforcements – which may allay concerns about rebel unity.
This weekend could see the biggest gains yet. Homs province is the largest in area in Syria and borders Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan. The city of Homs, parts of which were controlled by rebels until a bloody siege in 2014, is the gateway to Damascus as well as the Syrian coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, both strongholds of regime loyalists.
But anyone hoping for a decisive result in the coming days or even weeks may be disappointed. The rebels may not have imagined they could take Aleppo so quickly when they began their offensive last week, and they’ve come a long way very quickly. It is unclear whether they will be able to use the heavy weapons or other equipment they have captured, and success could expose the deep divisions between their various factions.
At the same time, regime forces may coalesce as the initial shock wears off. Assad is already withdrawing forces from eastern Syria to reinforce those around Damascus, ceding key cities such as Deir ez-Zor to Kurdish opposition factions.
“There is a clear level of desperation and they are concentrating defenses around strongholds. The big question now is what Iran and Russia are doing,” said Broderick McDonald, a fellow at King’s College London.
Moscow, a key backer that provided much of the firepower that turned the tide of the civil war in Assad’s favor, is distracted by Ukraine but is unlikely to abandon its investment in Syria entirely. Tehran, too, although weakened by the conflict with Israel, will do what it can after decades of support for the Assad family. Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, is fighting for the regime in the civil war and can still offer some help despite recent losses in the war with Israel. Hundreds of fighters from Iran-backed militias in Iraq are poised to cross into Syria to fight insurgents.
Also, there are Gulf powers that are more likely to support the devil they know than the one they don’t, especially when the main contender is a banned jihadist extremist.
This weekend, two annual conferences in Bahrain and Qatar will bring together many of the region’s foreign ministers, allowing for informal discussions and possibly the formulation of a plan to halt the rebel advance.
“This brings the whole Syrian uprising full circle,” Vakil said. “Assad survived through outside support, but this gives people another opportunity for the Arab Spring… We are in the fog, but for ordinary civilians this is a real moment, dangerous and uncertain, but definitely an opportunity.”
