Key events
During a session of parliamentary questions to ministers earlier this afternoon, government spokesperson Maude Bregeon accused the opposition left-wing NFP and far-right RN of being “engineers of chaos”. This was reported by BFM-TV.
In a few hours, Bregeon said, “the struggles of the RN and the NFP will merge. Each MP will then make their choice in this knowledge and will have to take responsibility to their constituents for being at the root of the country’s long-term weakening.
President Emmanuel Macron, returning from a presidential visit to Saudi Arabia earlier Wednesday and under pressure from both left and far-right lawmakers to step down, said talk of his potential resignation was “made-up politics.”
Macron told reporters he was “here because I have been elected twice by the French people”, adding: “We should not scare people with such things. We have a strong economy.”
The leader of the main centre-left Socialist Party (PS), part of the left-wing alliance NFP, said Le Monde that Macron should clarify his future intentions if Barnier’s government does indeed fall.
“Instead of making petty remarks during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron should now speak to the French people,” he said. “How can he leave the French people in this uncertainty just before Christmas?”
A note on afternoon and early evening fixtures: the parliamentary debate begins at 16:00 local time (15:00 GMT) with a discussion of an unrelated matter tabled by the radical left LFI.
This means that the debate on the two no-confidence votes should generally start around 4.45pm. The proposals, one presented by the left-wing NFP alliance and the other by the far-right RN, will be discussed together.
One speaker from each parliamentary group will speak on the motions, starting with Eric Cockerell MP for LFI. He will be followed by Marine Le Pen for the RN, then the Socialist Party (PS), the centre-right Les Républicains, the Greens and the various centrist parties that make up Emmanuel Macron’s alliance.
Each speaker is strictly time-limited, so we can be pretty sure that we will have around two and a half or two and three quarters of an hour of debate, with the vote due at around 7.45pm. local time. Voting should take about 45 minutes.
MPs will vote first on the motion of no confidence in the NFP – the one most likely to pass. To pass, the proposal needs 288 votes – just short of a majority of the 289-seat assembly, as three by-elections are held.
Therefore, in principle Michel Barnier and the fate of his government should be decided by about 8.30pm tonight.
How did it get here?
The roots of the failure lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and the resulting snap election, which returned a parliament divided into three roughly equal groups without a majority.
This meant that Barnier’s minority centre-right centre-right government was effectively left at the mercy of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and the far-right National Assembly (RN), which together had enough MPs to topple him.
On Monday, Barnier said he would push through the social security part of the budget without a parliamentary vote – a procedure that allows opposition MPs to challenge the government with votes of no confidence.
Both the left and the far right promised to do so this afternoon after a debate due to start at 4pm. local time (15:00 GMT). The vote on the proposal most likely to pass – there are two – is expected around 7 p.m.
New elections cannot be held until June and Macron – who is seen as unlikely to resign, at least for now – will face the difficult task of appointing a new government with a more divided parliament than ever.
Here’s a more in-depth explanation of how the crisis arose, why it’s happening now, and Macron’s possible options:
You can also read more about the crisis here and at a standstill big picture analysis, here.
Hello and welcome to the blog
The political crisis looming over France since the summer could take a dramatic new turn this afternoon with the three-month government of French Prime Minister Michel Barnier he thinks he will probably be cut off with a vote of no confidence.
If successful, the vote – on the government’s proposed 2025 budget, which includes €60bn (£50bn) in tax rises and spending cuts – would make Barnier’s fragile administration the first in France to be expelled in this way since 1962.
It will also become the shortest-lived government in the history of the Fifth Republic, which began in 1958, and plunge a key EU member state into an even deeper crisis weeks before Donald Trump arrives in the White House.
Follow us here for all the latest developments and new updates as they happen.
