iIs the Syrian war – the longest and second deadliest conflict of the 21st century – finally coming to an end? One wouldn’t bet on it. While a coalition rebels approached the capital Damascus from the north and captured it key southern border crossingsthe fall of the house of Assad remains more prophecy than reality. Still, the chances of President Bashar al-Assad leaving power are shrinking. The military forces that once saved his regime—the Russian air force and Hezbollah fighters—are now busy Ukraine and Lebanon. Mr. Assad appears increasingly vulnerable.
Since the Arab Spring reached Syria in March 2011, Mr. Assad’s regime has repeatedly defied predictions of collapse. Ruling by fear and intimidation, he has been credibly accused of using chemical weapons, lethal force and brutal torture against his own people. Syria would be better off without him. His fortunes seem to have changed last year when he was welcomed back into the Arabic fold after a decade of isolation. Yet this return reflects the self-interest of Arab monarchs and autocrats rather than genuine reconciliation. They saw Mr. Assad as a safer bet than the chaos his fall could unleash.
More than 800 people, including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since violence erupted last week. The scars of the Syrian civil war remain unhealed. Over the years, Mr. Assad’s regime has displaced 12 million people, many of them out of the country entirely. Today, 2 million Syrians live in appalling conditions in refugee camps in Idlib province, the largest of the so-calledde-escalation zones”, established by a fragile agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran. Despite this agreement, the Syrian regime continued its relentless attacks, turning Idlib and similar areas to the south into ruins.
Turkey exerts influence over Idlib, but does not have full control. A ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon has spurred rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani – who cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2017. – to launch an offensive. The rebels’ military might has exceeded expectations as regime forces collapsed – allowing the Islamist-led groups to retake key strategic regions, including major cities, with little resistance.
Ankara is facing growing domestic pressure to deal with the Syrian refugee crisis. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it public expressed willingness to meet with Mr. Assad to end hostilities. Yet the Syrian dictator rejected these proposals, demanding Turkey’s full withdrawal from Syria as a precondition for negotiations. Russian mediation failed to bridge the divide – allowing the regime to continue its attacks on Idlib. the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran are worried enough to hold talks over the weekend in Qatar about the fallout from Syria’s escalating civil war. Shifting alliances in the Middle East are changing Syria’s fortunes. Once isolated, Mr. Assad now enjoys support from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The latter has even discussed with the US whether sanctions against Damascus could be lifted if it breaks with Tehran. That might be a deal Donald Trump could accept.
Israel, meanwhile, sees unrest in Syria as a danger: it risks either a stronger Iranian presence or Turkish-backed Islamist factions holding sway along its borders. The turmoil in Syria has diverted attention from Gaza and the Palestinian cause, leaving aside a crisis that demands focus. The country is a stark reminder that conflicts in the Middle East are deeply interconnected, with outcomes that remain dangerously unpredictable.